The $8000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

Will It be Extended or Not

Capitol Hill may be vacant right now as Senators and Congressmen are home listening to their constituents, but real estate and home builder lobbying group[s are actively working on a full-bore campaign to extend the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit currently scheduled to expire on November 30, 2009.

As you may know, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the stimulus package) authorized a tax credit of up to $8,000 for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence between January 1, 2009 and November 30, 2009. The program has been quite successful in reducing the inventory of unsold homes while helping many afford to buy a first home.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are both hoping to persuade Congress to pass legislation to extend the tax credit as soon as possible after Congress returns to Washington next week. The two associations are contacting members of Congress even while they are in their home districts during their congressional recess. One of the things they are pushing for, in addition to an extension of the first-time home buyer credit, is to expand the program to cover all home buyers through the end of 2010.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid recently indicated that he believes “it's something we can get done.” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Democrat Chris Dodd and Republican Johnny Isakson are sponsoring a bill that would extend the credit through 2010 and expand it to a $15,000 maximum. In the House, two bills have been introduced to extend and expand the credit for either 6 or 12 months. Both the NAR and the NAHB organizations are strongly supporting these initiatives.

With this impetus, it seems likely that in one form or another, the tax credit will be extended into next year, but...

As we've come to understand, there is no such thing as a "sure thing" in Washington. NAR spokesman Walter Molony recently justified his organization’s support for the tax credit saying that it is reducing the inventory of unsold homes and stabilizing pricing, benefiting the economy since in his judgment house prices “overshot to the downside.” But, the NAR also estimates that 1.8 million to 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit before the current version expires. the program, as it now exists is expected to cost about $15.20 billion.

Viewed another way, however, NAR's own estimate is that only 350,000 of the homes sold under the program would not have been sold without the tax credit. If you now divide the $15.2 billion the program cost by only those 350,000 homes that would not have been sold without it and you get a whopping $43,000 per additional home sold. And, critics say, the numbers will only get worse if the program is extended and expanded to cover all home buyers.

These negative views of the program could lead many fiscal conservatives in both the Democratic and Republican parties to complain that any extension will only add to the ballooning national debt. Legislation that looks, at any given moment, as if it will clearly be enacted can be delayed, watered down, or frustrated in the House and filibustered in the Senate.

Don't assume this program will be extended. If you are in the market for a home, and particularly if you haven't owned a home in the past three years, so you qualify for the current $8,000 tax credit, you should be working with a Realtor right now to buy the home you've been wanting so you can close on it before the November 30th expiration of the current program. If you aren't already involved, contact a Realtor and get started toward owning your piece of our Sunny Southwest Florida paradise.